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Indian IT companies have been the poster-boys for stock market investors, thanks to their ability to break into the global big league when most other domestic exporters have failed. But the recent string of quarterly results from the top-tier players suggests that this honeymoon period may now be officially over. TCS, Infosys and Wipro have closed FY16 with just a 3 to 9 per cent expansion in dollar revenues. With profit margins already under pressure, double-digit earnings growth for FY17 seems to be a big ask. There are three disruptive trends that threaten the growth prospects of Indian IT firms and call for a significant change in their offshore delivery model. One, with global growth on a weak wicket and the tentative US recovery not pegging up IT spends, competition has sharply intensified in traditional services such as application development and maintenance, the bread and butter for Indian players. Automation of repetitive functions seems to be the way out, but this requires firms to cut back on their workforce, which entails separation costs and a likely pushback from the workforce. Two, growth opportunities in the global IT market also seem to be shifting away from BFSI and telecom, currently 40-50 per cent of revenues and towards verticals such as retail and healthcare, where Indian players lack a strong presence. Three, digital technology solutions are much in demand across verticals, but here multinationals with higher order consulting capabilities already have a head start. While players such as Infosys have managed some headway in digital deals mainly through acquisitions ramping up aggressively will require players to re-skill their large workforce at a rapid pace. Quite apart from moderating their growth trajectory, the above trends will also require firms to stop stockpiling cash and invest aggressively in acquisitions and automation, something they haven't
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